ho Are They, the Saviours of Russia?

Interfax-Argumenty i Fakty, Nos. 1-2
December 1996

The Magic Seven.

Vladimir ALEXANDROV

For about a year and a half the Vox Populi Service, in fulfilling the Interfax order, carried out quarterly polls of fifty experts with the aim of finding out the ratings of Russian leading industrialists and entrepreneurs and the degree of their influence on the state's economic policy. In every polling, the experts were offered a list of 150 names of the heads of the biggest commercial organisations and were asked to appraise the degree of their influence in accordance with the 11-mark system under which "10" implied the maximum influence of the businessman on the authorities' economic policy, and "0" - the absence of any influence. The list of the most influential businessmen was drawn up on the basis of average mark. Below we give an elite list of those businessmen who were included in it in December 1996 and who were included earlier in such lists at least once. On the basis of this list, with the help of Vox Populi experts, we shall try to analyse the degree of the influence of the Russian leading businessmen from the point of view of the stability of their ratings and the prospects of the development of this process in 1997.

The Rating of the Most Influential Entrepreneurs in Russia 1995-1996

[chart not reproduced]

According to the sociologists' point of view, the following entrepreneurs are the candidates to the main roles in Russian business: R. Vyakhirev (Gazprom), A. Smolensky (Stolichny Savings Bank), V. Gusinsky (MOST), M. Khodorkovsky (Rosprom), V. Alekperov (LUKOIL) and A. Kazmin (Sberbank).

Apparently, Mr. Berezovsky should not be excluded from this list either; maybe he should be regarded even as No. 1. It seems that his present official post is only an episode in his business carrier and that he might return to it very soon (if he has ever stopped it).

The mass media have more than once expressed the opinion that a "splendid seven" (maybe of another composition) controls almost half of the country's economic might. However, not a single tax policeman, to say nothing about sociologists, can say whether it is so. This point of view, however, is stable and for this reason it can influence the situation, because one of the sociological postulates says: the situation which is regarded as real - is real in its consequences.

At any rate, there can be no doubt that the greater part of these entrepreneurs will seriously influence the state's economic situation in 1997. Behind them, just as behind everyone of the 41 businessmen mentioned in the above list, stand money, ties of relationship, friendship with top-ranking officials, as well as the mass media and many other things.

The "splendid seven" is stable; its members are often rivals but I am sure that if a stranger dares try to penetrate their monolithic medium he will share the fate of proud politician-general Alexander Lebed. An interesting thing is that the upper layer of the business elite exerts an increasingly growing influence on the position of other companies and, consequently, on the popularity of their heads.

Out of the five businessmen, whose rating has been appreciably growing in the past eighteen months (V. Bogdanov, V. Gorodilov, A. Dyakov, S. Muravlenko and A. Khloponin), at least three are the proteges of someone from among the "seven." Moreover, in the list of 50 leading businessmen at least a quarter are the people who stand at the head of companies-satellites which are directly (as a result of personnel appointments) or indirectly (by means of financial levers) are controlled by the "seven."

As to the place occupied by everyone in the elite, this is very relative. Yet, it should be pointed out that Rem Vyakhirev invariably was the leader in all six polls, including the December one. The rating of Alekperov, Gusinsky, Smolensky and Khodorkovsky was never lower than the tenth place. The same high position was occupied by Potanin before he became a member of the government (apparently not for ever).

The past year was notable in that quite a few businessmen of the new type accepted state posts, something which never happened before, with the exception of the accession of "industrial generals" to the government. This is another indication of the great role played in Russia by persons who have achieved prosperity thanks to their talents and smartness. We expect the accession of the "bright minds" from commercial structures to state agencies to gather momentum in 1997.

This is only the top of the iceberg, which is rocked by the power struggle. In particular, Mr. Smolensky, whose empire has incorporated Agroprombank, can expect to climb to a higher position this year. No less interesting processes are underway in the second group of aspirants, the smaller sharks who are circling around the business mammoths, threatening to replace them. This group includes V. Vinogradov, A. Dyakov, S. Rodionov, V. Bukato, V. Khokhlov, and Ya. Dubenetsky. This year they can be joined by M. Prokhorov, D. Tulin and several others, whose ratings have been unstable for some time.

The third group includes S. Monakhov, N. Pugin, N. Bekh, V. Gerashchenko, S. Muravlenko, V. Bogdanov, S. Lisovsky and several others, whose names were cited as the second ten most influential businessmen in the Vox Populi polls in the past 18 months.

Some candidates from the previous two groups can well jump to the top of the power structure in 1997. On the other hand, such jumps usually lead to major problems. A case in point is the appointment of V. Kadannikov to the post of First Deputy Prime Minister.

The fourth group of "business guards" includes businessmen who have consistently held places in the middle and the second part of the list. The few long-livers are K. Bendukidze, A. Zakharov, I. Kobzon and G. Tosunyan.

Another distinguishing feature of 1997 may be the growing possibility of the "business generals" to influence the economy, thanks to the recent presidential decree on methods of governing ex-state-owned enterprises, now hanging in mid-air. Under that decree, such enterprises will be given over in trust management on the basis of tenders. The past mortgage tenders proved that there are great possibilities when financial might plays the key role. On the other hand, success is not guaranteed; rather, there is a chance of success.

And lastly, financial and industrial capitals tend to merge, forming typically Russian financial-industrial groups, with the industrial capital represented mostly by the export and producing industries, above all the oil and gas complex. However, it is clear that the bankers want to break out of the bonds of financial-speculative activities. Yukos, Sidanko and Norilsky Nickel, acting under the patronage of "their" banks, have been already trying to do this. This process will develop in 1997, given political stability in the country, and will, in its turn, serve as one of the key stabilising factors.